The Employment Plateau | Why steady isn’t stalled
- Clarity Hiring
Categories: Labour Outlook
It’s hard to miss.
Your LinkedIn feed is full of it: polished headshots, glowing announcements, and words like “thrilled,” “grateful,” and “new beginnings.” From architects to production managers, accountants to executive assistants, manufacturing supervisors to project leads, people are landing new roles, making career moves, and lighting up comment sections with congratulations. It feels like opportunity is everywhere.
And yet, when you step back and look at the numbers, the picture is a little more subdued.
According to Canada’s May labour market data, job growth was modest. The employment rate didn’t budge. Some sectors pulled back. Some regions stumbled. If the data tells us anything, it’s this: we may be in a moment of pause.
So how do we reconcile these two realities—one of cautious data, the other of career momentum? The answer lies in the nuances.
While we’re not seeing explosive growth, we are still seeing movement. The labour market isn’t surging, but it isn’t stalling either. It’s evolving.
The Stillness That Isn’t Still
Canada added just 8,800 jobs in May, with the employment rate holding at 60.8%. On the surface, not much has changed. But stability can carry as much meaning as volatility. In this case, it may point to a market that is balancing itself after last year’s gains rather than reversing course.
Momentum has slowed since the hiring surge seen in late 2024. That doesn’t mean the labour market is idle; it just means the growth is more uneven and more selective. Some industries are expanding, while others are contracting. Some regions are seeing gains, while others adjust to evolving conditions.
Tales by Sector
Wholesale and retail trade led the way with 43,000 new jobs, driven largely by wholesale. Information, culture, and recreation added 19,000 roles, and finance, insurance, and real estate continued their steady upward trend.
At the same time, public administration shed 32,000 jobs. This was a reversal following temporary boosts during the federal election. Transportation and warehousing, accommodation and food services, and business support services also declined, with each sector losing between 15,000 and 16,000 positions. These losses likely reflect seasonal adjustments and shifts in consumer behaviour more than structural damage.
Coast to Coast
Regionally, the picture is mixed. British Columbia stood out, adding 13,000 jobs, while Victoria posted Canada’s lowest big-city unemployment rate at just 3.7%.
The Maritimes also saw welcome gains: Nova Scotia’s employment grew by 2.1%, and New Brunswick added 1.9%, with unemployment falling in both.
Elsewhere, signs of strain emerged. Quebec lost 17,000 jobs. Prince Edward Island saw a sharp 2.9% drop in employment. Ontario held steady at the provincial level, but cities like Windsor (10.8%), Oshawa (9.1%), and Toronto (8.8%) are showing stress. This likely reflects challenges in manufacturing and auto-related exports.
Shifting Workforce Trends
Core-aged women (ages 25 to 54) saw a rebound, adding 42,000 jobs in May and pushing their employment rate to 80.1%. This is a historically strong showing. Their return helped recoup losses from April and reinforces continued momentum in female workforce participation.
Meanwhile, core-aged men experienced a drop of 31,000 jobs, bringing their employment rate to 86.0%. This is the lowest level since 2018, excluding the pandemic years. The softness appears concentrated in male-dominated sectors like construction and logistics.
Youth employment held steady, but returning students face headwinds. Unemployment among that group reached 20.1%. This is an early indication that summer job markets may be tougher this year, especially in sectors like hospitality and food services, which saw job losses in May.
Wages Rise as Hiring Eases
Average hourly wages rose 3.4% year-over-year to $36.14. This is a sign that demand for workers remains intact, even if hiring is cooling. While this level of wage growth doesn’t dramatically outpace inflation, it supports a narrative of resilience rather than retreat.
Unemployment ticked up slightly to 7.0%, marking the highest rate since 2016 outside of the pandemic. More concerning is the rise in long-term unemployment and a decrease in job-finding rates. These trends suggest a more competitive environment, particularly for those re-entering the workforce.
Indigenous Workforce Trends
In recognition of National Indigenous History Month, the May report highlighted trends across Indigenous communities. Employment among core-aged First Nations individuals living off-reserve remained steady at 68.2%, while Métis workers saw a notable year-over-year rise to 81.1%. However, the employment rate among young Inuit in Nunavut declined. This highlights ongoing regional disparities and the need for targeted support.
What This All Means
The May labour report doesn’t deliver big, attention-grabbing numbers, but it offers something just as important: perspective. The Canadian labour market isn’t backsliding, but it is shifting quietly and with purpose. It’s becoming more selective, more regionalized, and more reflective of where demand is evolving.
It’s true that some sectors are cooling and some regions are feeling the weight of uncertainty. But people are still finding jobs. Companies are still hiring. Careers are still moving forward, even if not at breakneck speed.
Those “I’m starting a new position” posts aren’t just noise. They’re signs of life. They remind us that even during periods of moderation, this labour market is far from standing still.